CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 19 Dec 06:00 - Tue 20 Dec 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 18 Dec 21:16 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

Thunderstorms are forecast across the Black Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 GMT... an elongated trough is forecast to stretch from northwestern Russia to the Aegean Sea. A small vorticity maximum / trough over southwestern Poland is expected to move southward upstream of the trough and reach the western Black Sea early Tuesday morning. Strong quasigeostrophic forcing for upward vertical motion is expected ahead of this system. A strong temperature difference between the Black Sea and the cold air should create some instability, that -according to the last model guidance- should be deep enough to produce some lightning.

DISCUSSION

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